{"id":224,"date":"2025-07-03T03:40:09","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T21:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/?p=224"},"modified":"2025-07-03T03:40:09","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T21:10:09","slug":"economic-outlook-growth-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/?p=224","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook &amp; Growth Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>2 July 2025<\/strong> &#8211; <strong>World Bank<\/strong> forecasts Myanmar\u2019s economy will <strong>contract by around 2.5%<\/strong> in the fiscal year\u202f2025\/26, driven largely by a devastating <strong>M7.7 earthquake in late March<\/strong>, which caused damage estimated at $11\u202fbillion\u2014about 14% of GDP\u2014and knocked $2\u202fbillion off economic output. Earlier projections for FY2024\/25 already indicated a 1% contraction due to severe flooding. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, <strong>BMI<\/strong> is expected to see a contraction of around 2\u20132.5% in that fiscal year, with little to no growth anticipated in FY\u202f2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Dragging Factors<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Natural disasters<\/strong>: Beyond the quake, floods and Cyclone Yagi disrupted agriculture\u2014cereal production fell \u22485%, although a slight rebound is anticipated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ongoing conflict<\/strong>: The civil war has significantly disrupted the agriculture, industry, and service sectors. Some areas experienced up to 33% output loss between April and September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inflation and currency depreciation<\/strong>: Inflation hovers around <strong>26\u201328%<\/strong>, worsened by the kyat losing \u224840% value in parallel markets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Poverty and displacement<\/strong>: Over <strong>31\u201332%<\/strong> of the population lives in poverty, up from \u22486% in 2019. Internal displacement exceeds <strong>3.5 million<\/strong>, while nearly 20 million (\u2248approximately 40%) require humanitarian aid.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector Highlights &amp; Future Projects<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Construction<\/strong>: Following a 6% decline in 2024, the sector is projected to grow at \u22483.5% annually through 2028, driven by foreign-backed energy and infrastructure projects. By 2029, the market is projected to reach MMK\u202f11.7\u202ftrillion (\u2248\u202f$5\u20136\u202fbillion), with ~6.7% CAGR.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Property market<\/strong>: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into real estate remains steady (\u22482.3% of GDP), with rental yields at 6\u20138%, and forecasted property price growth of <strong>5\u201310% in 2026<\/strong>, especially in Mandalay and Yangon.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook &amp; Risk Summary<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Economic contraction<\/strong> continues, likely extending through FY\u202f2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Recovery depends<\/strong> on stabilization of conflict, disaster response, currency control, and support for vulnerable populations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Medium-term bright spots<\/strong> lie in construction and real estate, contingent on political stability\u2014especially around the 2025 elections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Digital finance reforms<\/strong> may create structural gains, but strong regulatory overreach threatens civil liberties.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Sources: Reuters, World Bank, Coface.us, Krungsri, Diplomat, GlobeNewsWire, Bambooroutes, Statista, Wikipedia, ISEAS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>2 July 2025 &#8211; World Bank forecasts Myanmar\u2019s economy will contract by around 2.5% in the fiscal year\u202f2025\/26, driven largely by a devastating M7.7 earthquake in late March, which caused damage estimated at $11\u202fbillion\u2014about 14% <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/?p=224\" title=\"Economic Outlook &amp; Growth Projections\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,4],"tags":[44,47,46,45,14],"class_list":{"0":"post-224","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data","8":"category-outlook","9":"tag-data","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-inflation","12":"tag-outlook","13":"tag-poverty"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=224"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":226,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224\/revisions\/226"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmdot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}